Southwest Monsoon : The southwest monsoon is expected to reach Kerala on May 27, five days ahead of its normal onset date of June 1, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Saturday. The forecast carries a margin of error of four days.
In 2024, the monsoon had set in over Kerala on May 30, and the country recorded its highest summer rainfall since 2020. The rains were crucial in helping India recover from the drought conditions experienced in 2023.
For the second consecutive year, IMD has predicted above-average monsoon rainfall across the country in 2025. The department defines normal rainfall as between 96% and 104% of the 50-year average of 87 cm during the four-month monsoon season.
An early onset of the monsoon is expected to boost agricultural activity, particularly in rice-growing regions. As the world’s largest rice exporter, India relies heavily on timely rains for early sowing and a successful cropping cycle.
In its official release titled Forecast of the Onset Date of Southwest Monsoon – 2025 over Kerala, the IMD noted that the monsoon’s arrival signals a seasonal shift from hot, dry weather to widespread rainfall across the Indian mainland.
The forecast is based on an indigenous statistical model developed by the IMD, which has been in operational use since 2005. The model considers six climate indicators, including temperatures in northwest India and wind patterns over the Indian Ocean and Indonesia.
The onset over Kerala is a key indicator of the monsoon’s progress and its eventual spread across the country. As the monsoon advances northward, it provides much-needed relief from intense summer heat and sets the stage for the kharif cropping season.
