By D.N. Singh
Electoral arithmetic should be done based on the dos and don’ts those exist at the ground and not by preferences that the leaderships make either sitting in Bhubaneswar or Delhi. Such faux pas can be damaging as proven in the past across many parties.
So far as western Odisha is concerned, going by what the trends in the past or the indications in very recent times, the Bharatiya Janata Party was poised to offer a stiff fight to the rivals. Even some trends in the last by-poll in Bijepur also had revealed the under-current for the BJP which had polled a good percentage in Bijepur despite the party losing the election.
It may not be a prediction but some feedbacks from the areas in question do create an impression that BJP has severely faulted in its calculations so far as choice of candidates in some Lok sabha seats.
The most discussed flip-flop noticed, to begin with, is the prominent Lok sabha seat of Sambalpur. Where the party has gone in favour of Nitesh Gangadeb as its Lok sabha candidate, who has his original base in Deogarh. Apprehensions are there that the Sambalpur seat is being handed over to the rivals, mainly the BJD as Gangadeb may not break through the maze of Sambalpur politics to snatch a victory.
Notwithstanding the past defeats faced by Suresh Pujari in Sambalpur, Pujari is somehow identified by Sambalpur and given the wave of Modi that had started to have its presence in this region, the party would have done wise to re-field Pujari there rather than pushing him to Bargarh where Pujari’s chances are doubtable in the absence of his hold at the grass-roots. Although Pujari is not an alien entity for Bargarh but electoral politics goes by the chemistry with the masses and not merely by language or regional allegiance.
What may potentially damage Pujari’s prospect is the grave miscalculation done by BJP by denying Subash Chauhan a second chance from Bargarh Lok Sabha. Chauhan, in his debut from Bargarh Lok sabha had braved the ruling party blitzkrieg and polled over 3,72,000 votes. It goes without saying that, Chauhan who recently joined the BJD, would now galvanize the cadres in the Assembly segments, which he had assiduously nurtured in last five years, in favour of the BJD.
The other exception visible and politically incorrect also, is the candidature of Bhrugu Buxipatra for Berhampur. It seems the BJP thinktanks has either given a short-shrift to any prospects in Berhampur or they have just made a scape-goat out Buxipatra.
Buxipatras have their forte in the Koraput district and Bhrugu’s late father Harish Ch Buxipatra, who was a cabinet minister in Janata Dal ministry under Biju Patnaik , was a MLA from Jeypore more than once and was an extremely popular figure in South Odisha. But his son’s emergence in Berhampur as Lok sabha candidate could be an uphill task for him to snatch a victory from the rivals.
Political observers wonder what made BJP leadership to genuflect before the demand of Basant Panda, as the candidate in Kalahandi where Panda, a man from Nuapada, never enjoys any popular mass appeal in Kalahandi .
Inadvertently or otherwise there is an impression within the party circles that, the BJP leadership has committed a few miscalculations that may prove counterproductive in Western and parts of South Odisha.
