By D.N. Singh
It is an interesting phase. An animated suspense hangs over the credibility of the exit polls. There must be causes for little worry in the Biju Janata Dal camp here as well and the top guns must have re-entered the war rooms to assess if really something has gone wrong.
Adding to such worries are the exulted outburst of claims by an upbeat Bharatiya Janaata Party cadre here to form the next government in Odisha. And all that rest on the results of the exit polls conducted by some agencies across the country. Then some leaders from the BJP add fuel into the fire. Like Damodar Rout in his earlier interactions with the media had predicted that the BJD on its own can’t come back to power hence, Rout foresaw a possible alliance with the BJP.
But, after the exit polls of Sunday, he holds a changed view. He said that the BJD which seems falling far short of a majority might strike a deal with the Congress in Odisha. The other BJP leaders riding on the crest of an euphoria, not only jack NDA’s tally to 350 plus in the Lok sabha but they have palpable forebodings for the BJD in the assembly also. No one is in a mood to wait till May 23.
Chief Mnister of Odisha Naveen Patnaik who had jibed at the Prime Minister inviting him to his swearing in ceremony in advance, might be indulged in a memory throwback that if anything has gone wrong !
Was it wrong to decide in favour of Arup Patnaik as a match for Aparajita Sarangi for the Bhubaneswar Lok sabha seat ? Whereas, the general perception still remains that in Baba Prasanna Patsani BJD had a winning horse rather than the ex-cop from Mumbai. Similarly, the leadership was perhaps under heavy strategic confusion regarding the candidature of Bhatruhari Mehtab as the decision over his candidature this time appeared to be a penultimate recourse to ward off rebellion.
Had there been an alternative choice for the Puri lok sabha in place of Pinakhi Mishra, politically informed people in Puri feel that the BJD would have been able to reduce the air of negativity against Mishra. But that did not happen and if the general fear has anything to go by then the BJP candidate Sambit Patra may come out a winner to breach a BJD bastion for many years to come.
One does not know if there was any pressing compulsion behind fielding Nalini Pradhan for the Sambalpur Lok sabha seat. There Pradhan faced a real headwind from another paratrooper from the BJP Nitesh Ganga Deb who had noticeably marginalised Pradhan during the campaign, even by default.
If the above logic have any basis then BJP, that dreams of being at cloud 9 may gain a few points by default and in areas where the Congress may not do well in its pockets allowing the advantage to the saffron.
Exit polls on test
Which normally is done by agencies with the right expertise that requires timing of collecting the data or the demographic data asking questions like whom you voted for or why you voted for. There is an interesting factor like timing such as approaching the exited voter at different times when the survey may notice the differences and whether intended or otherwise, a single wrong opinion by a voter can be able to portray an inaccurate picture for a country. Or exit poll conducted by an agency if done with any amount of wayward data collection can produce a very imperfect scenario.
Because, the usual practice now-a-days is hiring people, normally the ones bit or not conversed with the technique of collection with a stipulated time frame. In fact, the hurry in which the data collection is done by the ones hired by the survey agencies ,may be, do not come under any supervision of the personnel of the surveyors that creates ground for half-hearted data collection.
We are not adequately equipped with the history of exit polls’ in earlier times world over but history shows that many exit polls in India and outside had been proved wrong. Every survey agency would rarely ever admit to the margins of error in data collection.
But records show that many exit polls had in the past, in India and elsewhere, proved inaccurate. And that, perhaps, is the only lifeline left for the anti-Modi thinkers although for the BJD here there are several indicators at a comeback albeit amid a situation not as easy as in 2014.
