Full-scale war may or may not yield political dividend, but it will take the country to the brink

Full-scale war may or may not yield political dividend, but it will take the country to the brink

By Priya Ranjan Sahu

On February 14, a suicide bomber rammed his explosive laden vehicle into a convoy of the Central Reserve Police Force at Pulwama district of Jammu and Kashmir. The cowardly attack, later owned up by Pakistan based terror outfit Jaish-e-Mohammed, claimed the lives of 40 CRPF personnel.

It was the biggest terrorist attack in the history of militancy in Kashmir and the whole nation was obviously stunned. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Congress president Rahul Gandhi and all other leaders condemned the terrorist attack. Condemnation also flowed in from other countries.

Any sensible government would have first taken steps to find why it happened, how a vehicle with 200 kg or 300 kg of explosives got into a completely sanitised road in a state, among the most militarised areas in the world. Investigation should have been initiated against those responsible for such a big intelligence failure or who did not act though having intelligence input about impending terrorist attacks. Heads should have rolled.

Instead, the narrative was completely changed to clamour for war against Pakistan. The TV channels stopped asking questions about the internal lapses in Pulwama and launched war mongering in studios. They sought revenge.

Though the BJP and opposition parties took a decision to put aside differences and be united in the hour of national crisis, BJP president Amit Shah raised the bogey of ‘blood for blood’ in a political meeting a day after Pulwama massacre of our jawans. Prime Minister Narendra Modi followed it up by urging voters to vote for BJP in the Lok Sabha elections in another meeting in Uttar Pradesh, on the same day when Union home minister chaired an all-party meeting in New Delhi on Pulwama issue.

Social media was flooded with hate messages against those who asked questions about intelligence failure or cautioned against going to war. There were reports of attacks on students from Kashmir studying in educational institutions across the country obviously to polarise society.

The Prime Minister did not immediately issue an appeal to country men to maintain peace. He went along with his political meetings and said things that linked war with Pakistan with electoral prospects in Lok Sabha.

Then after the air strike by the Indian Air Force on camps of JeM’s camps in Pak Occupied Kashmir, the martyrs of Pulwama were relegated to the background and the narrative shifted to India’s awesome fire power under Modi. Messages were sent across to one and all that only Modi had the ability to strike back if Pakistan tried to mess up with India. The terrorists’ death toll of over 300 was splashed in the India, quoting ‘sources’. The figure was however was questioned by reputed international media outlets.

Political discourse of the BJP continued around Modi being the strongest leader in India who should be voted to power again to take on Pakistan. The war cry completely outshone the pressing problems of India including unemployment, joblessness, farm crisis and slowdown in the economy. Former Karnataka chief minister Y.S. Yeddyurappa went to the extent of saying that the BJP would get 22 out of total 28 Lok Sabha seats in the state after the air strike.

But after the capture by IAF Wing Commander Abhinandan by the Pak Army, the narrative changed again. From ‘revenge for Pulwama martyrs’, it shifted to ‘bring back Abhinandan’. Many of those who were advocating for war suddenly started talking about de-escalation.

Call it international pressure or Pakistani Prime Minister’s “goodwill” gesture, Wing Commander Abhinandan returned home to a hero’s welcome on Friday. The same day four more security personnel fell to terrorist bullets in Kashmir.

Let’s face the reality: India has to deal with attacks by terrorists backed by Pakistan. But full scale war between two nations with nuclear capabilities is not the solution to it.

The low intensity proxy war has to be tackled by effective counter-terrorism warfare, the success of which depends on its covert nature and a robust intelligence network. This has been the policy of successive Indian governments at the Centre.

After coming to power in 2014, the Modi government has violated both the requisites of an effective counter-intelligence by making public covert operations like surgical strike to get political mileage and treating Kashmir as a military problem rather than a political one.

By cracking down on the local population, it has alienated the masses and thereby chocked intelligence flow. It has resulted in worsening of the situation. The CRFP jawans face this situation on a daily basis on the streets of Kashmir and it has taken a toll on them.

Between 2012 and 2018, home ministry figures say, if 175 CRPF jawans have been killed while fighting the enemy in India, more – 183 – have committed suicide due to pressure and indifferent attitude of authorities to their problems like lesser pay and facilities as compared to defence forces.

Many self-proclaimed nationalists argue that more terrorists have also been killed in the same period. Yes, along with more number of civilians, but that proves the fact that more and more youth are joining the terrorists, definitely a failure of the government. Looking back, the decade preceding 2014 was much better with much lesser casualties of security forces, civilians and terrorists. There were much lesser stone pelting incidents too.

After the Pulwama attacks those who attacked Kashmiri students in other parts of India forgot that they might be sons or daughters of Kashmiri parents working in Kashmir police, Border Security Force, Army and CRPF, and fighting a dangerous low intensity war with the terrorists. These “nationalists” do not realise what kind of grief it would cause in the patents’ mind.

In the whole affair, the media, mostly corporate controlled ones hankering for TRP and revenue, turned out to be the biggest enemy of the country. They stopped asking questions to the government and instead turned themselves to it propaganda machines. Instead of taking about unity, they tried to create divisions in society with their inflammatory studio discussions and war mongering.

Full-scale war may or may not yield political dividend but it will certainly take the country to the brink. We are living in a dangerous time.